Lauren Leatherby Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. Vance defeated Rep. Tim Ryan after a competitive campaign for Ohios open Senate seat. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. Nov. 8, 2022, Nevada is the last big swing state of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, three House seats, governor and secretary of state. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. Out of 170 races contested by both major parties, 43% were decided by a margin of 20 points or more, 28% were decided by a margin of 10-20 points, and 15% were decided by a margin of 5-10 points. This work really does have to be done, right? This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. Another 15%, about 5 per election cycle, were decided by a margin of less than 5 points. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Alicia Parlapiano Senate Election Forecast 2022: Can Democrats Keep Control in Midterms? NYT Graphics State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. For more, explore our 2024 GOP Primary polling average. The red wave did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. These numbers reflect first-choice votes, After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger, A Republican victory will be much smaller than Democrats feared. 2 References. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. 3 See also. Albert Sun Senate Midterm Election Results 2022 | CNN Politics Alicia Parlapiano In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization. Republicans and MAGA have left a lot of political real estate for us to go claim if we are aggressive about it. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m.

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